Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (June 29th):

...If the markets have embarked on a new worldwide bull market the “new leaders” are likely to be emerging and frontier markets. That view was reinforced by our friends at the astute GaveKal organization, whose seminar I attended last Thursday. I love the GaveKal folks because they are truly “out of the box” thinkers; and, it is just such thinking that produces net-worth changing ideas.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (June 22nd):

..."While history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, it does sometimes rhyme.” We think it might just “rhyme” this summer as the equity markets trade sideways as investors contemplate whether the improving economic numbers are ephemeral or for real. Our guess is this won’t be figured out by the markets until the late summer.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (June 15th):

...Consider this, since the last recession corporate profits (as measured by the National Income and Profit Accounts) have doubled, yet the S&P 500 (SPX/946.21) is no higher than it was during the 2001 recession. The observation is that corporate profits, as a percentage of GDP, are higher today than they have been in most of economic history.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (June 8th):

The typical Fear, Hope, Greed cycle can be seen in the attendant chart. Beginning at the lower left, where the word “fear” resides, think of the summer of 1982 when everybody was afraid to buy stocks and the stock market began to rally. Accordingly, through much of 1983 – 1985 (halfway up the bell-shaped curve), investors were “hoping” stocks would retreat to those 1982 levels so they could comfortably buy, but the markets are never that accommodating. Then in 1986 “greed” overcame “fear” and investors “bit the bullet” and bought stocks. Beginning in the spring of 1987 most of the stock market’s internals began to weaken, many stocks were declining, and numerous indexes also started to “top out.” The major market averages “topped” in the summer of 1987, leaving investors “hoping” stocks rallied back to their “greed” levels so they could break even and get out. Again, the markets are not that accommodating, and stocks fall into the Crash of 1987 where participants are “fearful” and sell their stocks.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (June 1):

Greetings from Geneva, where I am clearly NOT on spring vacation! Moreover, there certainly doesn’t appear to be much of a recession here. Indeed, the restaurants are full and real estate prices are still rising. Granted, Switzerland is unique because there is no land left; yet, I saw the same thing in Lugano and Milano last week. London, however, was a different story. This week finds us in Frankfort, Paris, Brussels, Luxembourg, and Amsterdam, where I will again be seeing institutional accounts and giving breakfast, lunch, and dinner presentations, as well as numerous one-on-ones. Consequently, while many folks think all I do is “play” on these sojourns, it is worth noting that I had five presentations a week ago today in Milano; and, then had to catch a train to Lugano to speak to twenty-some hedge fund managers at 7:00 p.m. The next morning I spoke at a breakfast and then had two more meetings before being driven back to Milano to speak at a lunch. From there, I had two more meetings before flying to the Channel Islands, where I arrived at 9:30 p.m., only to get up the next morning and start all over again. That said, while this is an abbreviated missive, I think the following email exchange pretty much expresses my current thoughts on the equity markets from my perch “across the pond.”

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (May 25th):

...[T]he SPX bottomed that Friday (3/6/09) at 666, and has never looked back, as the index galloped into the longest buying stampede of my lifetime! Indeed, the buying stampede is now legend at 51 sessions without anything more than a one- to three-session pause/correction. Being an “odds player,” we have, at the margin, missed the past 20 “relatively” upside sessions, having sold our remaining trading positions near session 30 in the upside skein.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (May 18th):

...[L]ast week’s action set up the potential for a more enduring decline than what we have seen since the March lows. Accordingly, we think participants should reduce / hedge their exposure to early-cyclicals, which have outperformed since our “buy ‘em” call of March 2nd.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (May 11th):

...[W]e are still avoiding the marquee Financials since we believe many of them still have problems. Moreover, if this does indeed turn out to be a new bull market (we are letting Dow Theory make that “call”), history suggests the leading group of the last bull market typically is not the leading group of the new bull market. Therefore, we think it doubtful the Financials will lead the next bull market. As of this point, we believe the leaders of any new bull market will be the international markets, particularly the emerging and frontier markets.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (May 4th):

...[W]e continue to believe the bear-market “lows” are behind us; and that the worst of the recession is in the rearview mirror (except for employment numbers). In previous missives we have stated that we are watching Personal Consumption Expenditures [PCE] closely, for this is how recessions end. If the “real” PCE has stabilized, we have noted, then the end of the recession is not far off. Last week the two-month “string” of positive PCE reports became a trifecta as the real PCE for March was reported at a positive 0.2%.

Excerpt from Raymond James strategist Jeffrey Saut's latest essay, published Monday (April 27th):

...[W]hile we are cautious in the short term, we think the current rally phase has “legs” and will likely, after some kind of near-term peak and subsequent correction, reassert itself and travel higher. Whether this turns out to be a new bull market we will leave to Dow Theory, but we have made some pretty decent trading profits over the past eight weeks and therefore continue to recommend harvesting some of those gains. For example, in our March 16, 2009 report we wrote: